THE LEAD
THE FED RATE ROLLER COASTER: 2020-2025
MARCH 2020 Fed: "COVID is here. Rates to zero. Good luck." Mortgage rates: 3.5% and falling Mortgage industry: "Wait... is this real?"
DECEMBER 2020 Fed funds: 0% Mortgage rates: 2.68% Processors: crying in their cars LOs: "I've closed 47 loans this month and I'm still behind."
ALL OF 2021 Fed: "Inflation is transitory." Everyone: "Are you sure?" Fed: "Transitory." Mortgage industry: "I bought a boat."
MARCH 2022 — THE PARTY ENDS Fed: +25 bps Fed: "Okay fine, it's not transitory." Mortgage industry: "Uh oh."
JUNE 2022 Fed: +75 bps Inflation: 9.1% (40-year high) Mortgage rates: 5.8% Refi business: has left the chat
JULY – NOVEMBER 2022 Fed: +75, +75, +75, +75 Mortgage rates: Blow past 7% LOs who bought boats: listing boats for sale
DECEMBER 2022 Fed: +50 bps Mortgage industry: "Oh thank God, only 50." (This is where we are mentally.)
MARCH 2023 Fed: +25 bps Also: Silicon Valley Bank collapses Mortgage industry: "Cool cool cool cool cool."
JULY 2023 — THE FINAL HIKE Fed: +25 bps (5.25-5.50%) Total damage: 11 hikes. 525 basis points. 16 months. Mortgage industry: "I've forgotten what a refi looks like."
AUGUST 2023 – AUGUST 2024 Fed: holds for 14 months straight Mortgage industry: "When are you cutting?" Fed: "When we're confident." Mortgage industry: "Inflation is down to 2.5%." Fed: "CONFIDENT."
SEPTEMBER 2024 — FINALLY Fed: -50 bps Mortgage industry: "Here come lower rates!" 10-year Treasury: goes up Mortgage rates: also go up Mortgage industry: "...what"
NOVEMBER 2024 Fed: -25 bps Election happens. Bond market freaks out. 10-year: Keeps climbing Mortgage rates: 6.8%
DECEMBER 2024 Fed: -25 bps (4.25-4.50%) Fed: "Also, only 2 cuts in 2025 now. Not 4." Mortgage rates: 6.85% Mortgage industry: "You've cut 100 bps and rates are HIGHER."
JANUARY – JULY 2025 Fed: holds for 5 straight meetings Tariffs: enter the chat Inflation: creeps back up Trump: "CUT RATES NOW." Powell: "No." Mortgage industry: "Here we go again."
SEPTEMBER 2025 Fed: -25 bps (4.00-4.25%) Labor market: Finally showing cracks Fed: "Fine. But we're watching you, inflation."
OCTOBER 2025 Fed: -25 bps (3.75-4.00%) Dissenters: Starting to get loud Mortgage rates: Still above 6% Mortgage industry: "Any day now..."
DECEMBER 2025 (THIS WEEK) Fed: -25 bps (3.50-3.75%) Dissenters: 3 of them (most since 2019) Powell: "We're well positioned to wait and see." Fed's 2026 forecast: Maybe 1 more cut. Maybe. Mortgage rates: 6.22% Trump: "That cut was too small." Powell: "Anyway..."
THE SCOREBOARD (2024-2025): Fed funds: Down 200 bps total since Sept 2024 Mortgage rates: Basically flat Bond market: Still undefeated
THE LESSON: The Fed controls short-term rates. The bond market controls long-term rates. The bond market does not take requests. And neither does Powell.
CHART OF THE DAY
Five Years Ago vs. Today - What Lenders Have Picked Up The Most Market Share?
THE BEST OF LINKEDIN
BREAKING: Powell Announces Rate Cut While Blinking ‘HELP ME’ In Morse Code; Pulte Live Tweets Threats From The Front Row
WASHINGTON D.C. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut Wednesday afternoon while allegedly blinking the phrase "HELP ME" in Morse Code, according to three former Navy signal officers who were watching C-SPAN "for fun."
The beleaguered Fed Chair, whose term mercifully expires in May, delivered the rate decision in what body language experts are calling "the verbal equivalent of a man being forced to apologize at gunpoint."
"If you watch the footage carefully, every time he says 'data dependent,' his left eye twitches in a pattern consistent with extreme psychological duress," said Dr. Helen Marsh, a behavioral analyst at Georgetown University. "I've seen hostage videos with more enthusiasm."
Read the rest of this story here …
At 2:23 PM, Pulte reportedly held up his phone to show Powell a tweet from President Trump that simply read "DO IT JAY" accompanied by 14 American flag emojis and what appeared to be a photo of Powell's house.
WHERE I’LL BE
Excited to kick off 2026 on the road with some incredible organizations!
Q1 2026 speaking schedule:
💼 Jan 29 — AmeriHome Mortgage Company, LLC, Non-Del Correspondent Sales Rally (Los Angeles)
💼 Feb 4 — Compeer Financial, Annual Sales Rally (Minneapolis)
💼 Feb 5 — Capital Bank, N.A., Annual Sales Rally (DC)
💼 Feb 22-24 — The Mortgage Collaborative, Desert Disruption (Scottsdale)
💼 Mar 16-17 — American Bankers Association Conference for Community Bankers, "Why Mega Mergers Create Big Opportunities for Hyper-Local Lenders" (Orlando)
💼 Mar 25 — Plaza Home Mortgage, Inc. Correspondent Sales Rally (San Diego)
Topics: LinkedIn strategy, AI tools, modern business development, and how to stop doing things that stopped working in 2019.
If you're planning a sales meeting, conference, or training session and want a speaker that does not suck and that sales people will actually take things away from and implement, shoot me a note!
LINKS THAT DON’T SUCK
COOL TOOLS I’M USING
beehiiv - The newsletter platform that doesn't make you want to throw your laptop. Clean builder, great analytics, free tier that actually works.
Gamma.app - Amazing AI generated documents and presentations from text in seconds.
Claude.ai - If ChatGPT is the flashy one at the party, Claude is the one actually getting work done.
Nano Banana Pro - Google's image generator finally got good. Photorealistic stuff that doesn't cost $50/month.
THE BIG PICTURE (THURSDAYS, 3 ET)
This Week’s Guest: Mike Metz - COO, VIP Mortgage
He's one of the most respected operators in the business, and we're lucky to have him back … Mike Metz, COO of V.I.P. Mortgage. Always paying it forward and dropping nuggets every time he's on.
Upcoming guests …
Jan 8 - Scott Weintraub, MQMR
Jan 15 - Ron Leonhardt, CrossCountry Mortgage
Jan 22 - Erin Dee, Interlinc Mortgage
COACHING CORNER
Your personal brand is the only career asset that's actually yours. The best time to start building it was years ago. The second best time is starting now.
A new year is upon us. Commit to flipping the switch.
I know. You've heard this before. You nodded, liked the post, and then went back to being invisible online because posting feels "cringey."
Here's what's changed: AI is flooding the internet with content. Which means your personal brand ... your voice, your perspective, your actual human personality ... is becoming more valuable, not less.
You don't need to become some LinkedIn influencer with motivational quotes and sunrise photos. You just need to show up.
MARK YOUR CALENDAR
Dec 18 — CPI Release (November data)
Jan 10 — NFL Wild Card Weekend begins
Jan 12-15 — MBA MISMO Summit (Amelia Island, FL)
Jan 17-18 — NFL Divisional Round
Jan 19 - College Football National Championship Game
Jan 25 — NFL Conference Championships
Jan 27-28 — FOMC Meeting (Fed rate decision Jan 28)
Feb 2-4 — MBA Independent Mortgage Bankers Conference (Amelia Island, FL)
Feb 8 — SUPER BOWL LX (Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA — Bad Bunny halftime show)
Feb 16-17 - ABA Community Bankers Conference
Feb 16-19 — MBA Servicing Solutions Conference (Grapevine, TX)
Feb 22-24 — The Mortgage Collaborative Desert Disruption Conference (Scottsdale, AZ)
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Play by the rules, but be ferocious.” - Phil Knight, Co-founder of Nike, Inc.
THE OHIO MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION (OMBA)
The OMBA Podcast Network = underrated if you like mortgage content
2026 Future Leaders Program!
THE CARDBOARD JUNGLE
All KINDS of new sports card releases - we go live at 7 PM ET on Friday nights!
Until the next one,
Swerb
[email protected]