THE LEAD
Danielle and her house went to couples therapy. I have the transcript.
THERAPIST: Welcome. Danielle, why don't you start. What brought you in today?
DANIELLE: I want to leave him. I have wanted to leave him for two years. He knows this.
THE HOUSE: She says that. She says that, and then every night she comes home. To me. Funny how that works.
THERAPIST: Let's use "I feel" statements. Danielle?
DANIELLE: I feel trapped. I feel like the kitchen is too small and the office faces a wall and there is one bathroom for four people and a CALENDAR for the shower.
THE HOUSE: I feel like she knew the bathroom situation on day one and signed anyway.
THERAPIST: Let her finish.
DANIELLE: I feel like I have outgrown this relationship.
THERAPIST: Okay. And House, how does that land for you?
THE HOUSE: Two point seven five.
THERAPIST: I'm sorry?
THE HOUSE: Two point seven five percent. That's my rate. Tell her to go price what's out there, doc. Go on. Tell her.
THERAPIST: Danielle, is that true?
DANIELLE: ...the rate is good, yes.
THERAPIST: I see. And have you explored what leaving would actually cost?
DANIELLE: I opened Zillow once. I had to lie down.
THE HOUSE: She apologized to my drywall afterward. Tell him that part.
THERAPIST: It sounds like there is real resentment here, but also a powerful financial bond. Danielle, what would it take for you to feel free?
DANIELLE: A sub-four percent rate on a house I actually like.
THERAPIST: And realistically?
DANIELLE: ...we're going to grow old together. In a kitchen I hate. With the rooster next door.
THE HOUSE: I think that's real progress.
THERAPIST: I have to be honest with you both. In twenty years of practice, I have never seen a couple this miserable and this committed. You despise each other, and you are never, ever leaving.
THE HOUSE: Best relationship I've ever been in.
Session notes: toxic, codependent, financially bonded, not leaving. That is not a marriage on the rocks. That is the American housing market in 2026.
CHART OF THE DAY
The center of the state is growing quickly in and around Columbus.
IT’S TIME!!!!
Most mortgage conferences give you one keynote worth the price of admission alone. We built ten.
In 32 hours the 2026 OMBA Annual Conference opens in Columbus, and I get to do the best part of my job: hand a microphone to people who are going to make everyone in that room better at this business.
Here is who takes the main stage at the 59th Ohio Mortgage Bankers Association Annual Conference this coming Sunday/Monday/Tuesday ...
ONE DAY PASSES NOW AVAILABLE! Get your booty to Columbus!
💥 Bill Cosgrove, CEO of Union Home Mortgage Corp. and a former Chairman of the MBA and President of OMBA, opens us up.
💥Michael Hammond JD, CMT ☘️ on how AI search and the LinkedIn algorithm have already changed the way borrowers find you, whether you have noticed or not.
💥Ohio State Senator Bill Blessing, on what is actually moving at the statehouse and why it lands on your desk.
💥Ohio's Own: Women Shaping Ohio Lending. More than a dozen of the women who built this industry in Ohio, on one stage, for the first time ever.
💥Ohio State football legend Maurice Clarett. Resilience, reinvention, and the Ohio playbook. Yes, that Maurice Clarett.
💥Robert Broeksmit, President and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association, straight from the front line in Washington.
💥Melanie Coulton, CMB®, AMP of Plaza Home Mortgage, Inc. on showing up for advocacy and earning the most respected designation in our industry.
💥Steve Richman. The Change Equation: why some lenders pull ahead while others fall behind.
💥Jodi Hall, CEO of The Mortgage Collaborative, on the vanishing middle.
💥Julie May, VP and GM of B2B Scores at FICO, in a fireside on the 10T transition every lender has to navigate before 2027.
If you lead or want to lead in this business in Ohio, this is where you want to be Sunday through Tuesday.
The biggest OMBA Conference ever.
COACHING CORNER
Claude Cowork is killing my software vendors one by one, and I am not entirely sure it is going to stop.
It started innocently. I asked it to help me sort out my books. Three days later I canceled QuickBooks. Just like that. A relationship I had paid for monthly, for years, gone, because a chat window did the same job without the $90 a month and the passive-aggressive "your version is out of date" reminders.
Then I made eye contact with my Airtable CRM. The one I lovingly built over a weekend and resented by Tuesday. I mentioned it to Cowork exactly once. Cowork looked at it the way a big dog looks at a yappy little dog. That subscription is also dead now. I did not even get to say goodbye.
Two down. And now I can't stop staring at the rest of my tech stack like the last few people alive in a horror movie. My scheduling tool is sweating. Google Calendar just poured a stiff drink. My project management platform has not made eye contact with me in days. And I have a document signing service that I am fairly certain can hear me typing this right now.
Here is the part that actually matters, juvenile jokes aside.
It is not that Cowork has more features. It has fewer. It does not make me log in, build a view, configure a field, watch a 9-minute tutorial, or pretend I am a part-time database administrator. I tell it what I want in plain English and the work shows up. The software disappears and the outcome stays.
QuickBooks made me learn QuickBooks. Airtable made me build Airtable. Cowork just asks me what I am trying to do. And if I'm being stupid, also gives me suggestions on ways to do it better.
I asked Claude Cowork for a little help and it has been quietly clearing my software stack like a horror movie ever since.
39 DAYS OF $OCCER
Chronicling my World Cup book, one glorious bad decision at a time. Day 3 of 39.
For the next 39 days, my office TV will not show a single rate sheet, MBS chart, or Fed headline. It will show soccer. Glorious, nonstop, group-stage-at-3-PM soccer.
With all due respect to March Madness, for my money there is no better sports tournament on earth than the World Cup. The next six weeks are a scary confluence of three things I love: gambling, high-level international soccer, and AI and research. So I did what any reasonable degenerate would do. I built a system.
For weeks I have been scheming with Claude as my co-pilot, pulling every piece of analysis from the analysts I respect most, marrying it to my own takes, and turning it into an actual strategy. Advance probabilities, group-winner value, fair-odds futures, and a bankroll spread across the life of the tournament. Research, AI, and 30 years of watching this sport, meeting at a glorious and slightly unhinged intersection.
To quote Kevin Peranio, I am responsible only for your gains, not any losses.
The board so far: 3-1, up $250 (and yes, I know this is exactly how the jinx starts)
Every pick, every result, posted right here. The card to date:
Mexico vs South Africa, Under 2.5. WIN. +$100
Czech Republic +0.5 and Over 2.5 vs South Korea. LOSS. -$50
Bosnia +0.5 vs Canada. WIN. +$100
USA to beat Paraguay. WIN. +$100 (and what a way to do it, a 4-1 beatdown at SoFi)
Two straight green days, the USA call cashing in style, and I now feel completely invincible, which is precisely the emotion that comes right before a 0-0 draw humbles me in front of all of you. Full transparency, all tournament. Some age like fine wine. Some like milk. You watch both.
The anchor: France to win it all at +475. The market is on Spain. I am not. Best starting XI on earth, absurd depth, back-to-back final appearances. I have run the bracket until my laptop begged for mercy, and every road ends the same way: France lifts the trophy.
The futures I am riding all the way: Netherlands as the dark-horse nuke. Algeria to do basically everything, advance, win the group, reach the Round of 16, reach the Final 8. Colombia on a deep run. Ecuador and Norway to escape their groups. Morocco to reach the Round of 16. The fades: Germany NOT to reach the quarters, Argentina NOT to reach the final, Croatia NOT to advance. Darts: Mbappe Golden Ball, Haaland and Vinicius Golden Boot.
Today's card (three games, $100 each):
Switzerland to win and Under 2.5 vs Qatar. The Swiss grind, they do not blow you out. Control over chaos.
Morocco +0.5 vs Brazil. Best game of the group stage. Neymar is out, Morocco's defense is elite, and plus-money on the Atlas Lions simply not losing is the sharpest number on the board.
Haiti vs Scotland, Over 2.5. Scotland has put up four goals in three straight matches and Haiti plays open, attacking ball. Goals are coming.
Gambling is only a problem if you lose.
LINKS THAT DON’T SUCK
MARK YOUR CALENDAR
Jun 14-16 - Ohio MBA Annual Conference (Columbus OH)
Jun 16-17 - FOMC Meeting (rate decision, press conference)
Jun 18-21 - US Open Golf (Shinnecock Hills)
Jun 19 - Juneteenth (federal holiday, markets closed)
Jun 21 - Father's Day
Jun 21 - Father's Day
Jun 22 - NBA Draft
Jun 29 - Wimbledon begins
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it." - Thomas Jefferson
THE OHIO MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION (OMBA)
The OMBA Podcast Network = underrated if you like mortgage content
Reg is OPEN for our 2026 Annual Conference!
THE MORTGAGE COLLABORATIVE
Want to learn more about the benefits of membership in TMC? Reach out to Heidi Belnay at [email protected]! Or me by replying to this email!
THE CARDBOARD JUNGLE
LOADED sports card break lineup for this coming Friday! Get your sports at thecardboardjungle.com!
We are one of eBay’s biggest and most highly rated sellers of sports card singles! Check out our eBay store here and pick up one of your favorite players rookie cards!
Until the next one,
Swerb
[email protected]