I have a working theory that Mat Ishbia is in worse financial trouble than anyone knows or is reporting on. I think he needed Two Harbors to get out of it. I think CrossCountry just closed that door.

Here is what I can prove.

UWM generated $3.2B in revenue last year and earned $244 million. That is a 0.9% net margin. Total equity dropped from $2.1B to $1.6B in twelve months. Operating cash flow was negative $2.6B. Cash on hand is $503 million against $3B in long-term debt. The stock is down 38% this year.

The Two Harbors deal was structured entirely in UWMC stock. Not cash. There was no cash. The deal would have nearly doubled UWM's servicing portfolio, bringing in $176 billion in real cash-generating assets. In exchange Two Harbors shareholders receive a currency that was already depreciating when the deal was announced and has depreciated further every month since.

That is not an acquisition. That is a man trying to trade paper for real assets before anyone does the math on the paper.

While that deal was pending, Ishbia established a stock selling program and has been executing it nearly every single trading day in March. Over $30M dollars in sales this month alone. The plan was set up in September. Before the deal was announced. Before the deal collapsed this morning.

There are some interesting numbers sitting in the Q4 10-K footnotes related to how the mortgage servicing portfolio is being valued. I am going to let people with Bloomberg terminals and time take a closer look at those assumptions and compare them to what peers disclosed for the same period. I have a working theory about what they will find. I am keeping that theory to myself for now.

What I will say publicly is this.

Minority partners in the Phoenix Suns alleged in court that he used the franchise as his personal piggy bank, charged the team above-market interest on loans with himself on the other side of the transaction, and missed a capital call deadline he himself had set while threatening others with dilution for the same failure. They alleged the exposure jeopardized his net worth and his status as an NBA owner. That case settled into confidential binding mediation two weeks ago. The terms are sealed.

When a man is extracting value from a basketball team through related-party transactions, selling his own company's stock every single day, structuring a billion-dollar acquisition with no cash component, and refusing to take questions on his earnings call, these things can each be explained individually.

Together they are telling a story.

Read the rest of this post here …

Quarterly check-in on the mortgage and housing stock universe.

The homebuilders are up. Toll Brothers is having its best quarter in years while the rest of the industry debates whether anyone can afford to buy the houses Toll Brothers is building. The market does not care about that irony. The market is not known for its self-awareness.

The GSEs are in witness protection. Fannie and Freddie spiked hard in January on the Trump mortgage bond order, peaked, and have since given back everything plus a significant amount of other people's money. Down 50 percent from year-end. Bill Ackman still believes in them. Respect the conviction.

FICO, TransUnion, and Equifax all dropped in the same week after the The Tazmanian Pulte posted on X that credit score pricing was out of control. One tweet. Three stocks. Tens of billions in market cap. This is the world we live in now.

UWM is down 38 percent on the year. Mat Ishbia has sold over thirty million dollars in company stock this month alone.

And Zillow is down 36 percent in a market where people check Zillow the way they check the weather. Every day. For homes they are not going to buy. That combination of cultural dominance and stock underperformance is genuinely impressive and I mean that sincerely.

Some of the best hires I've seen this year started with a "hey, do you know anyone" text.

My answer is almost always yes. It's my thing. Some people collect stamps. I collect baseball cards and high performers who are quietly losing their minds in the wrong seat.

CEOs, COOs, capital markets, ops, sales. I know where the talent is.

Job boards find resumes. Relationships find people.

If you need one or want to be one, my DM's are open. And I work 800% cheaper and more effectively than recruiters and I'm a lot more fun at dinner.

Ron Leonhardt with the savage back door thievery of Two Harbors once the UWMC stock price continued crumbling.

If only someone could have done the same before the Durant and Beal trades, the Suns wouldn't be at the front end of a decade of NBA purgatory.

Ron just gave Ishbia a masterclass in Ohio closing technique. The tuition was $25.4 million and it was non-refundable.

GO CAVS!

So much fun these last couple of days out in San Diego with the awesome Plaza Home Mortgage, Inc. correspondent lending team.

Love when I’m able to get dinner with a team the night before we roll up the sleeves. It’s like family the next morning. Everyone is more engaged and bought in.

And we spent almost 2.5 hours this morning on how to be LinkedIn bus dev killers. Was very fun and super impactful! I’ve always loved this company and this team and have always done business with them … and this morning was a reminder why.

Closing things out tonight doing one of my favorite things. Exploring cities solo on foot. Especially when it’s LaJolla! George’s on Prospect rooftop bar … thank you Erin Dee, MBA and Craig Turley!

And thank you Plaza Home Mortgage, Inc. Salpi Meyer! Mike Fontaine! Mike Modell! Laura Lee! Melanie Coulton, CMB®, AMP!

MSR Market Monthly Update March 2026

Iran War and Oil Prices Eliminating Nearly All Room for Downward Mortgage Pricing

Morgan Stanley Warns an AI Breakthrough Is Coming in 2026 — and Most of the World Isn't Ready

Apple's Reimagined Siri Debuts 2026, Powered by Google Gemini

Sinners Leads 98th Academy Awards With Eight Category Mention

'Swangy' Is 2026's Food Buzzword — Sweet and Tangy Is the New Sweet and Spicy

Apr 2 - Jobs Report (March)

Apr 3 - Good Friday (markets closed)

Apr 4 & 6 - Final Four & Championship (Indianapolis)

Apr 5 - Easter Sunday

Apr 9-12 - The Masters (Augusta National, Rory McIlroy defending)

Apr 10 - CPI Release (March inflation data)

Apr 13-14 - MBA State & Local Conference

Apr 14-15 - MBA National Advocacy Conference

Apr 15 - Tax Day

Apr 23-25 - NFL Draft (Pittsburgh, first time since 1948)

Apr 26-28 - Texas MBA Annual Conference

Apr 27-30 - HousingWire’s “The Gathering” Conference

Apr 28-29 - FOMC Meeting / Fed Rate Decision (Powell's second-to-last as Chair)

"Ask the other 29 GMs, 26 of them would trade their whole team for our whole team, our draft picks, and everything as is.” - Phoenix Suns owner Mat Ishbia

Until the next one,
Swerb
[email protected]