THE LEAD
My speculative mortgage M&A deal sheet for the back half of 2026.
Quick disclaimer: I have zero inside information on any of this. I'm completely making it up based on public filings, cocktail party rumors, and 25 years of pattern recognition. In no particular order.
▪️ PENNYMAC + Newrez (Rithm Capital). The least sexy IMB-REIT mega-merger imaginable. Boring. Profitable. Inevitable?
▪️Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation + Movement Mortgage. Two cult retail lenders walk into a bar, emerge with 3,000 LOs and one HR migraine. Two largest non-public retail IMBs. Movement's Charlotte HQ + Fairway's Madison HQ = Midwest/Southeast retail powerhouse. Both have culture-first identities that could blend?
▪️Citi finally returns to mortgage. Shopping list: AmeriHome Mortgage Company, LLC correspondent platform, Cardinal Financial Company, Limited Partnership Financial, or Newrez retail (carve out from Rithm).
▪️(Guaranteed?) Rate + Atlantic Bay Mortgage Group. VA/Carolinas geography is a perfect fit for the aggressively scaling ABMC. Rate's been recruiting Atlantic Bay LOs for two years anyway.
▪️Mr. Cooper / Rocket + Onity Group Inc.. Six months after Onity swallows loanDepot, Rocket swallows Onity. America's first $3T residential servicer is born.
▪️Rithm + Computershare Loan Services (ServiceMac, LLC, US arm). Australian parent wants out of US mortgage. Rithm picks up another $150B+ in subservicing UPB and bolts it onto Newrez Servicing.
▪️ loanDepot taken private by Apollo Global Management, Inc. or KKR. Public markets stop pricing the company at 0.3x book. PE owns the cleanup.
▪️Dark Matter Technologies acquired. ICE divested it to make the Black Knight deal go through. Constellation has run it cleanly for two years. Now someone wants the Empower platform - and ICE can't be the buyer.
▪️ Freedom Mortgage + Planet Home Lending ... Both are great companies that have correspondent operations and servicing footprints.
The M&A climate remains ripe as the new world order of mortgage lending is reshaped amidst a 4 ½ year long bear market.
CHART OF THE DAY
Uhhhh…
IF YOU BUILD IT THEY WILL COME
Looking to meet new movers and shakers in the industry?
EIGHT dynamic keynotes (Bill Cosgrove, Maurice Clarett, Bob Broeksmit, Steve Richman, Jodi Hall, Julie May, State Senator Bill Blessing, CMBA Society's Melanie Coulton) plus one more coming.
Looking to celebrate the women shaping this state's mortgage industry?
Ohio's Own honors 15 trailblazing female leaders.
Looking to get your finger on the pulse of the industry?
21 interactive lender-led breakout sessions across three tracks.
Looking to reward a couple of future leaders in your org who've been killing it?
This is the trip. Bring them. Watch them light up.
Here's what three days at OMBA Annual actually looks like:
SUNDAY, JUNE 14
4:00 PM kickoff. Opening keynotes that set the tone for the whole event. Then an off-the-hook opening reception that does not feel like every other conference reception you've been to. By 8 PM you've already met more decision-makers than you'd hit in three months of cold outreach.
MONDAY, JUNE 15
Full day, end to end. Breakfast keynote with State Senator Bill Blessing. Maurice Clarett mid-morning. Bob Broeksmit luncheon. The Ohio's Own celebration honoring 15 trailblazing women in Ohio mortgage banking. 15 breakout sessions across three tracks running throughout the day. Cocktail reception in the evening flowing into a plated dinner program. The kind of day where you don't check your phone because you don't have to.
TUESDAY, JUNE 16
Breakfast and more keynotes from Jodi Hall, Julie May, and Melanie Coulton. Final breakout sessions across all three tracks. Conference closes at 11:45 AM, so you're home for dinner and back at your desk Tuesday with pages of notes and a new strategic playbook for the back half of 2026.
OMBA Annual Conference
June 14-16
Renaissance Columbus Westerville-Polaris
Columbus, OH
Details/reg can be found here.
This will be one of 2026’s best conferences. $495!!! Are you kidding me?
CREDIT HILARITY
BREAKING: VANTAGESCORE OFFERS "750 OR YOUR MONEY BACK" GUARANTEE TO BORROWERS WITH SUB-640 FICOs
STAMFORD — VantageScore today unveiled its boldest consumer offering yet: a guarantee that any borrower with a sub-640 FICO will receive a VantageScore 4.0 of 750 or higher. The launch comes as loan officers across LinkedIn report seeing routine 120 to 150 point disparities between FICO and VantageScore on the same borrower files.
Industry observers expressed full confidence this gap will not be exploited.
"Look, the old way of scoring credit is just so judgmental," said a VantageScore spokesperson from inside what appeared to be a podcast studio recently converted from a CrossFit gym. "We don't believe in 'past behavior predicting future behavior.' That's so 2015 of us."
REAL EXAMPLES FROM THE PILOT (which lenders did not know they were in)
→ Borrower A. FICO 587. VantageScore 762. Source of income: "vibes."
→ Borrower B. FICO 612. VantageScore 781. Has not made a car payment since the Obama administration.
→ Borrower C. FICO 543. VantageScore 804. Filed his 4th personal bankruptcy in March. VantageScore called this "a healing journey."
→ Borrower D. FICO 599. VantageScore 812. Identifies as "a small woodland creature."
UWM BROKERS REACT WITH GRACE AND RESTRAINT
The wholesale broker community, known for its unwavering commitment to compliance, has been quick to confirm it would never exploit a 150 point scoring gap for personal gain. "Our brokers would NEVER game this system," said one wholesale executive, while four brokers behind him visibly Googled "is credit score fraud a felony in all 50 states." "The integrity of the broker channel is unimpeachable. Now if you'll excuse me, we have a 96% LTV cash-out FHA to lock at 740."
INDUSTRY VOICES
One credit union president, off the record: "Borrower came in with an 821 VantageScore. I shook his hand. Then I pulled his FICO. It was 471. He defaulted on a loan I gave him FOUR YEARS AGO. AT MY CREDIT UNION."
A capital markets head at a top-15 IMB: "We modeled it. The expected loss curve looks like a children's drawing of a mountain."
A secondary marketing director at a mid-size lender: "The pricing came back at 47. Forty-seven what, I asked. He said 'we don't know yet.'"
Side effects may include foreclosure and starring in a Netflix true crime documentary about something called "The Pilot."
FUNNY NOT FUNNY
LO: u up?
PROCESSOR: omg what now
LO: pulled trimerge on my borrower. FICO says 652. VS says 738.
LO: which one do i use
PROCESSOR: depends on the lender
LO: ITS THE SAME LOAN
PROCESSOR: i know
LO: HOW CAN HE HAVE TWO DIFFERENT SCORES
LO: HE IS ONE PERSON
PROCESSOR: technically he has six. three bureaus times two scoring models
LO: i'm gonna go drive into the ocean
PROCESSOR: don't, you'll need a new score for the boat loan
My advice to everyone is to start drinking heavily.
LINKS THAT DON’T SUCK
THE BIG PICTURE (THURSDAYS, 3 ET)
This Week’s Guest: Kate DeKay!
Hosted by Chrisman Media!
This Thursday at 3 PM ET on The Big Picture, Rob and I sit down with Kate DeKay, the third-generation CEO and owner of Eustis Mortgage and one of the most respected voices in the IMB world.
Kate's story is one of the best in our industry. She started at Eustis as a teenage receptionist and filing clerk, came back after college as a loan processor, and became CEO in 2017 while eight months pregnant with her third child. She has spent the last nine years scaling a New Orleans family business into a national name, all while serving on the MBA Board of Directors, the TMC Advisory Board, and the TMC Tech Council.
We will get into legacy, leadership, what it really takes to run a family-owned mortgage company in 2026, and where Kate thinks the industry is headed next. You will not want to miss this one.
Upcoming guests below. Holy lineup, Batman!
May 21 - Kate DeKay - CEO, Eustis Mortgage
May 28 - Varun Krishna - CEO, Rocket, Interim CEO at Redfin
June 4 - OPEN
June 11 - Glenn Strong - CEO, FirstTrust Home Loans
June 18 - Kathy Kraninger - Former CFPB Director, Current President & CEO of the Florida Bankers League
June 25 - Joe DeDominicis - CEO Stockton Mortgage
July 2 - Kim Nelson - CEO, BankSouth Mortgage
MARK YOUR CALENDAR
May 14-17 - PGA Championship (Aronimink Golf Club)
May 16 - Preakness Stakes (Laurel Park, Md.)
May 17-20 - MBA Secondary and Capital Markets Conference (Marriott Marquis, NYC)
May 25 - Memorial Day (markets closed)
May 31 - Indy 500 (Indianapolis Motor Speedway)
JUNE 2026
Jun 3 - Jobs Report (May)
Jun 5 - Belmont Stakes (Saratoga Race Course) -- Triple Crown on the line
Jun 11 - FIFA World Cup kicks off (USA, Canada, Mexico -- 48 teams)
Jun 14-16 - Ohio MBA Annual Conference (Columbus OH)
Jun 21 - Father's Day
Jun 16-17 - FOMC Meeting (rate decision, press conference)
Jun 18-21 - US Open Golf (Shinnecock Hills)
Jun 19 - Juneteenth (federal holiday, markets closed)
Jun 21 - Father's Day
Jun 22 - NBA Draft
Jun 29 - Wimbledon begins
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Six strings. When all six are in tune, the chords they make can stop a conversation cold, carry a broken person through the worst night of their life, or make a room full of strangers feel for three minutes like they’ve known each other forever. And if even one is off, the whole chord unravels. Not gradually, not politely, the moment you strike it, you know.” - Eric Church
THE OHIO MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION (OMBA)
The OMBA Podcast Network = underrated if you like mortgage content
Reg is OPEN for our 2026 Annual Conference!
THE MORTGAGE COLLABORATIVE
Want to learn more about the benefits of membership in TMC? Reach out to Heidi Belnay at [email protected]! Or me by replying to this email!
THE CARDBOARD JUNGLE
LOADED sports card break lineup for this coming Friday! Get your sports at thecardboardjungle.com!
We are one of eBay’s biggest and most highly rated sellers of sports card singles! Check out our eBay store here and pick up one of your favorite players rookie cards!
Until the next one,
Swerb
[email protected]