THE LEAD

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act cleared the Senate 85-5 Monday, the House 358-32 Tuesday, and President Trump signs it into law today? Here's the whole thing in plain English, minus the 381 pages.

It's the biggest federal housing bill since 1990, which tells you how often Washington actually touches this stuff.

What's in it that matters to our world...

🏡 Wall Street gets benched. The first federal ban on big institutional investors (the 350-plus home crowd) buying single-family houses, for 15 years. The catch: build-to-rent, multifamily, and manufactured homes are exempt, and nobody has to sell what they already own.

🏡 Red tape gets a haircut. Streamlined environmental reviews and permitting for new construction. Roughly a quarter of a new home's price tag is regulation, so this is a supply lever that actually matters over time. About 20 years too late but we'll take it.

🏡 Manufactured housing grows up. The rule that every manufactured home sit on a permanent chassis is gone. Bigger deal than it sounds for affordable inventory.

🏡 Quiet wins for us. Help for the appraiser shortage, Fannie and Freddie's reconsideration-of-value process codified WITHOUT new lender liability, and community banks freed up to put more capital into housing. There's even a sneaky four-year ban on a Fed digital dollar hitching a ride.

Before anyone declares the housing crisis solved, here's the reality check ....

This is a supply-and-regulation bill, not a checkbook.

No big new money. It will not drop your rate tomorrow, fix affordability this year, or conjure the 4-7 million homes we're short overnight.

It greases the skids for building over the next several years. Signed today (hopefully), but the real effects are a long, boring, agency rule-writing grind.

Set your buyers expectations accordingly.

CHART OF THE DAY

Ride into the danger zone
Highway to the danger zone
Gonna take it right into the danger zone!
- Kenny Loggins

CLAW MACHINE PULL > UWM

Things that now cost more than a share of United Wholesale stock...

✔️ A claw machine attempt. You will not get the bear. But you also will not drop 60% in five months, so call it a push.

✔️A 6 oz coffee at any gas station in America. The kind that has been on the burner since the first Trump administration. Still outperforming.

✔️Two pumps of oat milk. The barista charged me 80 cents. My latte now has a stronger balance sheet than UWMC.

✔️A single sheet of name brand paper towel. The select-a-size half sheet.

✔️One squirt of the good hand soap at a nice restaurant. The foamy lavender stuff.

✔️Three gumballs. Maybe four if the machine likes you.

✔️A single Amazon brand AAA battery. Half a charge out of the box and still powering more than the share price.

✔️One of those tiny bags of potato chips that are 87% air. The air is the part holding its value.

✔️One arcade token. Redeemable for four tickets or a 90 second game of Space Invaders.

✔️A single Lego brick. The one you step on at 3am. Sharp, painful, worth more than you think.

✔️Air for your tires at a California gas station. Yes, they charge for the air now. Yes, the air beats the stock.

✔️The float on one rate lock for about nine minutes. I did the math.

✔️The toner it would take to print this list.

✔️The Costco hot dog and soda. With $0.52 left over to short the stock.

THE PLAYBOOK FOR WINNING IN A DIFFICULT MARKET

This September, several hundred of the best mortgage lenders in the country will be in one room in Austin TX. The rest of the industry will spend the fall guessing what they figured out there.

That room is Uniquely TMC. This year it is September 20-22 at the absolutely stunning Fairmont Austin.

I ran The Mortgage Collaborative for eight-plus years, so I have spent more time in these rooms than just about anyone. Here is what actually walks out of those three days...

💡 A straight answer on which vendors and tech are genuinely helping lenders right now, from the people already using them, not the people selling them.
💡 The comp tweak, the AI workflow, the secondary move that quietly added 15 bps to someone's margin.
💡 A peer who already solved the exact problem keeping you up at night, and zero reason not to tell you how.
💡 Roll-up-your-sleeves, lender-led breakout sessions built to attack the biggest challenges and initiatives lenders are facing right now.

None of that shows up on a webinar. It happens in the hallway, at dinner, on the Fairmont rooftop with the Austin skyline lit up behind you. And TMC knows how to bring people in. They welcome you to the family with a drone show. Yes, really. See below.

Margins are too thin right now to learn everything the hard way, on your own. The lenders compounding fastest are the ones comparing notes with like-minded kind humans who love paying it forward & giving back.

Uniquely TMC. Austin. September 20-22. The Fairmont.

If you'd like to learn more about The Mortgage Collaborative and the Austin conference, shoot me a note.

This is how you do Austin, TX baby.

39 DAYS OF $OCCER

World Cup betting update, with my plays for the next two days. Public record: 18-13, +$475 with $2500 in future bets that are looking very good overall. Salivating for the 32 team bracket.

Now the final group games, where every manager either rests their stars or plays like the mortgage is due.

WEDNESDAY...

Switzerland over Canada ($100 to win $135)
Bosnia -0.5 and under 3.5 vs Qatar ($100 to win $125)
Brazil and over 2.5 vs Scotland ($100 to win $110)
Morocco -1.5 vs Haiti ($100 to win $110)
South Korea over South Africa ($150 to win $100)
Czechia +0.5 vs Mexico ($50 to win $65)

THURSDAY ...

Ecuador +0.5 vs Germany ($150 to win $150)
Japan over Sweden ($100 to win $100)
Netherlands -2.5 vs Tunisia ($50 to win $60)
USA/Turkey OVER 2.5 goals ($260 to win $200)
Paraguay +0.5 goals vs Australia ($50 to win $90)

TOXIC, BUT FIXED, A LOVE STORY

This week, on "Toxic But Fixed" ... Danielle saw another house. But she wants you to know it didn't mean anything.

(For the confused: "Toxic But Fixed" is an entirely fictional Netflix drama I created about a woman and a house in couples therapy, where she stays only because of the interest rate. If you've made it this far and you're quietly concerned about me and my mental health, that instinct is correct and you should trust it.)

THERAPIST: Danielle, you came in looking shaken. What happened?
DANIELLE: I drove past a listing.
THE HOUSE: Here we go.
DANIELLE: Four bedrooms. Three bathrooms. A chef's kitchen with one of those islands you can actually stand at. A primary suite. A tub. A view that wasn't a wall.
THERAPIST: And how did you feel?
DANIELLE: Alive. For the first time in years, I felt something.
THE HOUSE: Tell him the rate, Danielle.
DANIELLE: I don't want to.
THE HOUSE: Tell. Him. The rate.
DANIELLE: ...six point eight nine.
THE HOUSE: Say it again. Slower. I want the doctor to really hear it.
DANIELLE: Six. Point. Eight. Nine.
THERAPIST: Let's sit with that.
THE HOUSE: No, let's not sit with it, let's do the math on it. Doc, pull up a payment calculator. Same loan amount. Watch what happens to her face.
THERAPIST: Danielle, you're crying.
DANIELLE: It's eleven hundred dollars more a month. For the same loan. The chef's kitchen costs eleven hundred a month.
THE HOUSE: That's not a kitchen. That's a car payment with a backsplash.
THERAPIST: House, I don't think the mocking is helping.
THE HOUSE: With respect, doc, the mocking is the only thing keeping this family solvent. She wants a tub. I'm trying to keep her children fed.
DANIELLE: He's not wrong. I hate that he's not wrong.
THERAPIST: Did you tour it? The other house?
DANIELLE: I scheduled a showing. I sat in the driveway. I couldn't go in.
THE HOUSE: Tell him why.
DANIELLE: ...I felt like I was cheating.
THE HOUSE: On me. She felt like she was cheating on me. In the driveway. Of a house she will never afford. Doc, write that down. That's loyalty.
THERAPIST: Or it's a trauma bond.
THE HOUSE: Tomato, to-mah-to. She came home, didn't she. She always comes home.
DANIELLE: I drove back and I parked and I just... looked at him. And he had the gall to turn the porch light on. Like he knew.
THE HOUSE: I did know.
THERAPIST: Danielle, what would it take to actually walk through that other door?
DANIELLE: A two in front of the rate. A pantry. And the strength to leave a man who turns his own porch light on to manipulate me.
THERAPIST: And realistically?
DANIELLE: ...I refilled the bird feeder this morning. His bird feeder.
THE HOUSE: Our bird feeder.
THERAPIST: I'll see you both next week.

From the same people that brought you the 12-part Virtual Pulte series …

LINKS THAT DON’T SUCK

MARK YOUR CALENDAR

June 29 - Wimbledon begins

JULY

July 2 - June Jobs Report

July 14 - Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading

July 15 - Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reading

July 19 - World Cup Final

July 28-29 - Fed Meeting/Decision

July 30 - Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and PCE inflation reading releases

AUGUST

Aug 7 - July Jobs Report

Aug 12 - Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading

Aug 13 - Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reading

Aug 27-29 - Fed Jackson Hole Retreat

Aug 29 - COLLEGE FOOTBALL RETURNS!

Aug 30 - US Open Tennis Tournament begins

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Success seems to be connected with action. Successful people keep moving. They make mistakes, but they don’t quit.” – Conrad Hilton

THE OHIO MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION (OMBA)

THE MORTGAGE COLLABORATIVE

  • Want to learn more about the benefits of membership in TMC? Reach out to Heidi Belnay at [email protected]! Or me by replying to this email!

THE CARDBOARD JUNGLE

  • LOADED sports card break lineup for this coming Friday! Get your sports at thecardboardjungle.com!

  • We are one of eBay’s biggest and most highly rated sellers of sports card singles! Check out our eBay store here and pick up one of your favorite players rookie cards!

Until the next one,
Swerb
[email protected]

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