Turns out when you bet the company on rates going down, and rates don't go down, that's a problem. Who could have seen it. Besides everybody.

UWM was having an ugly quarter no matter what. A massive losing bet on rates going down turned bad into disastrous.

That bet cost $603.2 million, the dividend, 38% of their equity, and their independence.

START WITH THE BORING NUMBERS

The quarter was already a disaster before the $600M losing bet on rates falling.
Purchase volume $23.8B, down 13% in a market that grew. Total volume $39.7B, down from $44.9B in Q1. Expenses up 21%.

Secured line of credit drawn: $425M a year ago. $2.95 BILLION now.

Originating less. Spending more. Borrowing to cover the gap. That's the quarter BEFORE the fun part.

NOW THE FUN PART

Loss on other interest rate derivatives, five quarters: +$208.9M, +$27.8M, +$61.4M, -$138.2M, -$603.2M.

They'll tell you this was pipeline hedging. Three problems.

ONE. Their pipeline was $9.6 billion. A $603 million loss is 6% of it. Rates didn't move 6% in a quarter. To lose that hedging $9.6B of loans, the hedge has to be a multiple of what it's hedging.

TWO. A hedge OFFSETS. The gain is supposed to land in loan production income. That came in at $527.2M and the gain margin went UP, 123 bps to 133. Margins improved AND they lost $603M. Both can't be true of a hedge.

THREE. Derivative liabilities went from $337.8M last quarter to $33.6M. They closed it. This isn't a paper mark that reverses next quarter. It's spent.

This was a wager on Pulte being able to force out Powell and rates falling. It lost.

THE PART WHERE HE HAD TO GO ASKING

Equity: $1.75B a year ago, $985M today. Non-funding debt to equity: 1.90x, then 3.18x, now 6.13x. MSRs of $5.31B sitting on $985M of book.

So today, a $2.05 billion "strategic capital partnership." Read it closely.
The Oaktree quote comes from their Global Opportunities Group. That's the distressed desk. Their lawyers are Kirkland & Ellis, the top restructuring shop in America.

Nobody calls those two when things are going great.

What $2.05B buys you: preferred that sits ahead of you, warrants that dilute you, a $400M rights offering at a $2.00 floor that dilutes you again, an Oaktree board seat plus a second director, and no dividend.

Read the rest of this post here …

I pulled every lender in America that closed at least $100M in purchase volume in 2026 to see which lenders are growing purchase market share the quickest. Within that I ran separate #'s April 1 2026 forward to detect even more recent momentum.

Numbers are percent of the national purchase market. 3.08% means 3.08% of every purchase dollar in America. SPRING means the trend got faster after April 1. Builder-owned captives excluded, they'd all be top decliners right now.

IMB, OVER $2B ('26 pace, purchase only)

ADVANCERS

Cross Country Mortgage 3.08% to 3.45%, +0.36 SPRING
The Loan Store, Inc. 0.64% to 0.89%, +0.25 SPRING
Mortgage Research Center 1.69% to 1.93%, +0.24
Rocket 4.05% to 4.29%, +0.24 SPRING
Zillow Home Loans, LLC 0.38% to 0.59%, +0.21
Rate 1.81% to 1.99%, +0.18 SPRING
Barrett Financial Group 0.24% to 0.40%, +0.16 SPRING
PENNYMAC 1.00% to 1.12%, +0.12 SPRING
Kind Lending | NMLS #3925 0.61% to 0.72%, +0.11
Guild Mortgage 1.71% to 1.82%, +0.10 SPRING

DECLINERS

United Wholesale Mortgage 5.58% to 4.82%, -0.76 SPRING
Movement Mortgage 1.25% to 1.11%, -0.15 SPRING
Newrez 0.64% to 0.58%, -0.06
Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation 1.63% to 1.57%, -0.05
PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company 0.48% to 0.43%, -0.04

IMB, $500M TO $2B

OriginPoint +0.12 SPRING
Cornerstone First Mortgage, LLC First +0.12 SPRING
Tomo Mortgage +0.11
A & D Mortgage LLC +0.07
First Colony Mortgage +0.07 SPRING

IMB, $100M TO $500M

Universal Lending +0.047
West Capital Lending +0.040
Bridgeway Lending Partners, LLC +0.027
Lifetime Home Loans +0.026
Standard Capital Mortgage Corp +0.024

BANKS AND CREDIT UNIONS, OVER $2B

ADVANCERS

Navy Federal Credit Union Federal CU +0.16
Wells Fargo +0.15 SPRING
JPMorganChase Chase +0.13 SPRING
Huntington National Bank +0.09 SPRING
Fifth Third Bank +0.04 SPRING

Read the rest of this post here …

We just added four more names to Home for the Holidays, and it's official: this lineup has gotten ridiculous.

Still $395. Not $395 for the ticket and then $80 a plate. $395 for all of it. Meals, parties, two-plus days of massive names from inside mortgage and outside it. This is quickly becoming one of the biggest stages this industry has ever built. And one of the biggest Christmas party it's ever thrown.

This becomes a $795 to $995 conference. Probably soon.

Here's some of the new commits, with more coming:

Lisa Ingram, President and CEO of White Castle.

White Castle invented fast food. Not the slider. Fast food. They opened in 1921 as the world's first fast food hamburger chain, and everyone who came after them franchised and got bigger. White Castle never did, because franchising meant giving up control of the experience. 105 years later they are still family owned, still private, still run by the Ingrams, and headquartered right here in Columbus since 1936.

Read that again if you run a mortgage company or want to. They invented the category, watched competitors lap them on size, and chose the long game anyway. They are still standing.

Lisa Ingram is the fourth generation and only the fourth CEO in company history. Two numbers for an industry that cannot keep good talent: White Castle general managers average ten to twenty years with the company, and turnover is under five percent.

She's a marathon runner and she runs the business the same way: never turn away from what pays off long term just because the short term hurts. Her family has done that through the Depression, a world war, beef rationing, and every competitor that tried to bury them. If you lived through the last three years in this business, you want to hear what she has to say.

Also now confirmed as joining us ...

Stan Middleman, Founder and CEO of Freedom Mortgage. One of the most successful founders this industry has ever produced, and he is doing a one on one fireside. He operates on a different level. And is one of the owners of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Dan Snyder, CEO of Lower. Columbus built, and one of the most interesting growth stories in American lending.

Brian Vieaux, CMB, President of Mismo. The man who sets the data standards the entire business runs on.

And they join a lineup already stacked ... and we are over four months out with a litany of additional big names inside and outside the industry to be added.

Ross Bjork, Athletic Director at The Ohio State University. Jodi Hall, President and CEO of The Mortgage Collaborative. Dustin Owen, CMB®, AMP. Dave Savage. Kristin Messerli. Erin Dee, MBA of BankSouth Mortgage. Jennifer McGuinness-Lubbert. Eric Roman of Nations Lending. James Sias of Fifth Third.

Venue reveal is coming later this week, and it is a good one.

December 6 to 8. Columbus, Ohio.

Still $395. With this lineup we have earned the right to raise it, and we are going to. If you have been waiting, stop waiting and get down!

UWM Announces 2Q Results

How much energy do data centers and AI really use?

Mapped: new home building permits by state

New jobs data reveals troubling wave of cuts at retail and restaurant chains

The 2026 NFL season, simulated millions of times

How homeowners are reacting to skyrocketing property insurance costs

What to cook before summer disappears

AUGUST

Aug 6 - NFL HALL OF FAME GAME IN CANTON, Panthers vs Cardinals
Aug 6 - Productivity and Costs, Q2 preliminary
Aug 7 - July Jobs Report
Aug 12 - Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading
Aug 13 - Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reading
Aug 13 - Originator Connect, Las Vegas
Aug 26 - NATIONAL DOG DAY
Aug 27-29 - Fed Jackson Hole Retreat (Warsh's first as Chair, and the one to watch after three dissents in July)
Aug 28 - FINAL NFL ROSTER CUTS FOR REGULAR SEASON!
Aug 29 - COLLEGE FOOTBALL RETURNS!
Aug 30 - US Open Tennis Tournament begins

SEPTEMBER

Sept 1 - JOLTS for July
Sept 4 - August Jobs Report
Sept 7 - Labor Day
Sept 9 - NFL SEASON KICKOFF, Seahawks host Patriots in the Super Bowl LX rematch (a Wednesday, not the usual Thursday)
Sept 10 - Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reading
Sept 11 - Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading
Sept 13 - US OPEN TENNIS FINAL
Sept 14 - 78TH PRIMETIME EMMY AWARDS on NBC, going up against Chiefs vs Broncos on Monday Night Football
Sept 15-16 - FOMC MEETING, rate decision Wednesday the 16th
Sept 19 - INTERNATIONAL TALK LIKE A PIRATE DAY
Sept 19 - Oktoberfest begins in Munich
Sept 20-22 - Uniquely TMC, Austin TX
Sept 21 - OMBA GOLF OUTING, The Golf Club of Dublin, 9:00 AM shotgun start
Sept 24-27 - PRESIDENTS CUP at Medinah Country Club, Snedeker vs Ogilvy
Sept 27 - MLB REGULAR SEASON ENDS
Sept 27-29 - MBA Compliance and Risk Management Conference, Washington DC
Sept 29 - MLB POSTSEASON BEGINS
Sept 29 - NHL SEASON OPENS, first year of the 84-game schedule
Sept 29 - JOLTS for August
Sept 29 - NATIONAL COFFEE DAY

OCTOBER

Oct 2 - September Jobs Report
Oct 7 - September FOMC minutes released
Oct 10 - mPowering You: MBA's Summit for Women in Real Estate Finance, Chicago
Oct 11-14 - MBA ANNUAL CONVENTION AND EXPO, Hyatt Regency Chicago
Oct 12 - Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples Day
Oct 14 - Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading
Oct 14 - Fed Beige Book
Oct 14 - MBA Tech Exchange, Chicago
Oct 15 - Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reading
Oct 16 - Import and Export Price Indexes
Oct 16 - NATIONAL BOSS'S DAY (your move, direct reports)
Oct 17 - SWEETEST DAY (invented in Cleveland in 1922, so Ohio gets the credit and the blame)
Oct 20 - NBA SEASON OPENS, Knicks raise the first banner in more than 50 years
Oct 23 - WORLD SERIES GAME 1
Oct 27-28 - FOMC MEETING, rate decision Wednesday the 28th
Oct 30 - Employment Cost Index, Q3
Oct 31 - HALLOWEEN, on a Saturday, and the night a World Series Game 7 would be played

“When you combine ignorance and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results.” - Warren Buffett

Until the next one,
Swerb
[email protected]